传说中的Science论文说了些什么?——“迈向内在安全且韧性的社会”

Allenby等在《科学》Special Issue Dealing with Disasters上发表的Toward Inherently Secure and Resilient Societies一文中,强调了利用双重用途技术(dual-use technology)来增加韧性又提供额外的经济、社会、环境益处。这其中各种组织机构以网络为中心的组成结构和模式(network-centric organizational structures/patterns)是实现这一多目标过程的关键(Allenbyet al., 2005)

Allenby肯定了韧性是一个综合的系统视角,开篇给出了韧性的定义:

Resiliency is defined as the capability of a system to maintain its functions and structure in the face of internal and external change and to degrade gracefully when it must.

并且指出了需要在“event life cycle”中去考虑韧性策略的实施:

One might invest in avoiding any event in the first place;

Creating long-term plans that reduce or mitigate threat;

Generating a warning in time to implement or adjust plans and reduce potential costs;

Mitigating the event as itoccurs;

Planning short-term responses and recovery or longer term recovery capabilities.

Externally vs. Inherently

一些提高韧性的策略是表面性,外在的,只针对某一特定的方面,而没有其他的益处;而另一些提高韧性的策略则是有着双重用途,除实现韧性之外还能提供很多额外的经济、社会、环境益处。显然,前者更易实现,但后者却更有效率。Allenby把后者称为“portfolio approach”。Such an approach should seek to minimize not risk associated with individual events but risk across the social unit as a whole.

Network Organization and Urban Systems

回到网络组织和城市系统,Allenby认为,城市是dual-use technologies,practices, and systems的绝佳实验场所。城市化加剧,城市的重要性突现,但同时城市也变得更为脆弱。脆弱并不意味着不堪一击。Indeed, throughout history they have often been destroyed—by fire, by disease, by nuclear attack, by earthquake, and by war—and yet, from 1100 to 1800 only 42 cities worldwide were abandoned after their destruction.

Allenby进一步强调了information对于现代城市系统的重要性。给出了一个dual-use technology的典型案例——Decision Theater at Arizona State University. 有灾时协调应急管理和系统响应;平时则可以起到提高城市管理效率和教育的作用。

Network-Centric Organization

The evolution of information-dense urban systems is paralleled by a trend in private firms toward network-centric organizational structures.

Allenby认为许多公司的关键设施已经很大程度上从physical assets转移到了knowledge systems and networks and the underlying information and communication technology systems and infrastructure.

Allenby举例说Teleworking是一种ideal dual-use system.可以节省空间成本交通时间成本同时减少了碳排放;同时在家工作也会增强社区意识和安全,提高社会公平性。For:

Network-centric structures enable non-place-based access and temporary working arrangements, and cognitive capability built into network tools can facilitate economic integration of the disabled, and other marginalized groups, for example, seniors.

所以,好像并不是很高大上的样子。但是就跟Allenby在文末说的一样,韧性这东西,包括本文所讨论的dual-use tools and technologies,那都是说起来容易,做起来难。So, Science,就是看看就好,别想太多。

 

参考文献:

Allenby B, Fink J. Toward inherently secure and resilient societies[J]. Science. 2005, 309(5737): 1034-1036.